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Number of found documents:
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Form of preference misalignment linked to state-pooling structure in Bayesian persuasion
Rehák, Rastislav; Senkov, Maxim
2021 - English
We study a Bayesian persuasion model in which the state space is finite, the sender and the receiver have state-dependent quadratic loss functions, and their disagreement regarding the preferred action is of arbitrary form. This framework enables us to focus on the understudied sender’s trade-off between the informativeness of the signal and the concealment of the state-dependent disagreement about the preferred action. In particular, we study which states are pooled together in the supports of posteriors of the optimal signal. We provide an illustrative graph procedure that takes the form of preference misalignment and outputs potential representations of the state-pooling structure. Our model provides insights into situations in which the sender and the receiver care about two different but connected issues, for example, the interaction of a political advisor who cares about the state of the economy with a politician who cares about the political situation.
Keywords:
Bayesian persuasion; strategic state pooling; preference misalignment
Fulltext is available at external website.
Form of preference misalignment linked to state-pooling structure in Bayesian persuasion
We study a Bayesian persuasion model in which the state space is finite, the sender and the receiver have state-dependent quadratic loss functions, and their disagreement regarding the preferred ...
Czech kurzarbeit: evidence from the first pandemic wave
Jurajda, Štěpán; Doleželová, P.
2021 - English
We describe the firm-type structure of the use of the main Czech kurzarbeit program (called Antivirus B) during the spring 2020 pandemic wave. Evidence based on the Structure of Earnings Survey shows large participation gaps in favor of large employers, and disproportionately high intensity of use of the program by manufacturing companies, in particular those exhibiting a declining wage bill already prior to the pandemic. Compared to other industries, manufacturing is thus able to ‘cover’ by kurzarbeit support the largest share of the decline in hours worked between the 2nd quarters of 2019 and 2020, with the exception of the hospitality and culture industries, which were directly affected by pandemic measures, such as restaurant closures.
Keywords:
kurzarbeit; COVID-19; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Czech kurzarbeit: evidence from the first pandemic wave
We describe the firm-type structure of the use of the main Czech kurzarbeit program (called Antivirus B) during the spring 2020 pandemic wave. Evidence based on the Structure of Earnings Survey shows ...
LATE estimators under costly non-compliance in student-college matching markets
Drlje, M.; Jurajda, Štěpán
2021 - English
A growing literature exploits a feature of centralized college admission systems where students with similar admission scores in a neighborhood of a school’s admission threshold are or are not offered admission based on small quasi-random differences in admission scores. Assuming that the students at the margin of admission differ only in the treatment assignment, this literature relies on admission scores to instrument for admission or graduation. We point out that non-compliance with the centralized matching assignment typically corresponds to enrolling in one’s preferred program a year after the initial assignment, introducing significant non-compliance costs. We show that with costly non-compliance, the exclusion restriction, the key assumption of the LATE theorem, is violated, leading to biased estimates when instrumenting for graduation, i.e., for a treatment taking place after non-compliance costs are incurred. We use data from a student-college matching market in Croatia to illustrate the empirical importance of this potential source of bias and propose a method inspired by Lee (2009), which recovers the treatment effect bounds under the assumption that the costs of non-compliance are not related to the treatment assignment.
Keywords:
LATE theorem; exclusion restriction; college admission
Fulltext is available at external website.
LATE estimators under costly non-compliance in student-college matching markets
A growing literature exploits a feature of centralized college admission systems where students with similar admission scores in a neighborhood of a school’s admission threshold are or are not offered ...
Make your own luck: the wage gains from starting college in a bad economy
Bičáková, Alena; Cortes, G. M.; Mazza, J.
2021 - English
Using data for nearly 40 cohorts of American college graduates and exploiting regional variation in economic conditions, we show robust evidence of a positive relationship between the unemployment rate at the time of college enrollment and subsequent annual earnings, particularly for women. This positive relationship cannot be explained by selection into employment or by economic conditions at the time of graduation. Changes in major field of study account for only about 10% of the observed earnings gains. The results are consistent with intensified effort exerted by students who experience bad economic times at the beginning of their studies.
Keywords:
business cycle; higher education; cohort effects
Fulltext is available at external website.
Make your own luck: the wage gains from starting college in a bad economy
Using data for nearly 40 cohorts of American college graduates and exploiting regional variation in economic conditions, we show robust evidence of a positive relationship between the unemployment ...
The impact of the crisis-induced reduction in air pollution on infant mortality in India: a policy perspective
Kyrychenko, Olexiy
2021 - English
Credible estimates of the health effects associated with changes in air pollution exposure are of considerable importance for research and policy agendas, especially for developing countries. This paper estimates the impact of the sharp reduction in particulate air pollution driven by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 on district-level infant mortality in India. Utilizing plausibly exogenous geographic variation in the crisis-induced changes in air quality and novel data from household surveys and satellite-based sources, I find that the infant mortality rate fell by 24% more in the most affected districts, implying 1338 fewer infant deaths than would have occurred in the absence of the crisis. Analysis of the mechanisms indicates that the PM2.5 reductions affected infant mortality mainly through respiratory diseases and two biological mechanisms: in utero and postbirth PM2.5 exposure. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the estimated decline in infant mortality translates into a three-year after crisis total of 312.5 million U.S. dollars. The resulting health benefits could be used as a benchmark for assessing the effectiveness of the policies designed to improve air quality in India.
Keywords:
air pollution; infant mortality; crisis
Fulltext is available at external website.
The impact of the crisis-induced reduction in air pollution on infant mortality in India: a policy perspective
Credible estimates of the health effects associated with changes in air pollution exposure are of considerable importance for research and policy agendas, especially for developing countries. This ...
Career-breaks and maternal employment in CEE countries
Bičáková, Alena; Kalíšková, Klára
2021 - English
Post-birth career breaks and their impact on mothers’ labor market outcomes have received considerable attention in the literature. However, existing evidence comes mostly from Western Europe and the US, where career breaks tend to be short. In contrast, Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, where post-birth career interruptions by mothers are typically much longer, have rarely been studied. In the first part of this study, we place CEE countries into the EU context by providing key empirical facts related to the labor market outcomes of mothers and the most important factors that may affect them. Besides substantial differences between CEE countries and the rest of the EU, there is also large heterogeneity within CEE itself, which we explore next. In the second part, we review the main family leave and formal childcare policies and reforms that have occurred in CEE countries since the end of Communism and provide a comprehensive survey of the existing scientific evidence of their impact on maternal employment. While research on the causal impacts of these policies is scarce, several important studies have recently been published in high-impact journals. We are the first to provide an overview of these causal studies from CEE countries, which offer an insightful extension to the existing knowledge from Western Europe and the US.
Keywords:
CEE countries; labor market; motherhood
Fulltext is available at external website.
Career-breaks and maternal employment in CEE countries
Post-birth career breaks and their impact on mothers’ labor market outcomes have received considerable attention in the literature. However, existing evidence comes mostly from Western Europe and the ...
The outflow of high-ability students from regular schools and its long-term impact on those left behind
Federičová, Miroslava
2021 - English
Early tracking school systems, which stream student by ability, are considered a trigger of widening inequality in education. However, more homogenous class composition resulting from ability tracking seem to improve efficiency of teaching and learning. Literature on peer effects shows contradictory findings about these two counteracting effects. This paper contributes to the discussion of the efficacy of ability tracking by examining the effects of the outflow of high-ability students after primary education on the long-term educational outcomes and behaviour of their peers who remain in regular classes. Exploiting a 2009 school reform in Slovakia which postponed tracking by one year, we show that the outflow of high-performing peers results in a weak negative long-run effect on non-tracked student’s math scores and late arrivals at school, and more persistent negative effects on out-of-school study time.\n
Keywords:
early-tracking school system; peer effects; gender effects
Fulltext is available at external website.
The outflow of high-ability students from regular schools and its long-term impact on those left behind
Early tracking school systems, which stream student by ability, are considered a trigger of widening inequality in education. However, more homogenous class composition resulting from ability tracking ...
Asset prices and business cycles with liquidity shocks
Nezafat, M.; Slavík, Ctirad
2021 - English
We develop a production based asset pricing model with financially constrained firms to explain the observed high equity premium and low risk-free rate volatility. Investment opportunities are scarce and firms face productivity and liquidity shocks. A negative liquidity shock forces firms to liquidate a fraction of their assets. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and find that it generates an equity premium and a level and volatility of risk-free rate comparable to those observed in the data. The model also fits key aspects of the behavior of aggregate quantities, in particular, the volatility of aggregate consumption and investment.
Keywords:
general equilibrium; business cycles; production based asset pricing
Fulltext is available at external website.
Asset prices and business cycles with liquidity shocks
We develop a production based asset pricing model with financially constrained firms to explain the observed high equity premium and low risk-free rate volatility. Investment opportunities are scarce ...
Learning about ethnic discrimination from different information sources
Korlyakova, Darya
2021 - English
We experimentally study whether public beliefs about ethnic discrimination, an emotionally loaded issue, are shifted more by information from experts or from ordinary people. We also examine whether people are inclined to choose the most influential sources. For this purpose, we combine, in a novel design, the random provision of information from different sources with endogenous information acquisition from the same sources. We find that individuals update their beliefs most in response to information from experts, namely researchers studying ethnic minorities and human resource managers. Exogenous adjustments in beliefs do not induce changes in attitudes to ethnic minorities. Consistent with the strength of belief updating, more individuals choose information from experts over information from ordinary people. This result suggests that, in the aggregate, people behave rationally as they favor a source that is perceived to be relatively accurate. The findings have implications for information dissemination policies.
Keywords:
ethnic discrimination; beliefs; information sources
Fulltext is available at external website.
Learning about ethnic discrimination from different information sources
We experimentally study whether public beliefs about ethnic discrimination, an emotionally loaded issue, are shifted more by information from experts or from ordinary people. We also examine whether ...
Sequential vote buying
Chen, Y.; Zápal, Jan
2021 - English
To enact a policy, a leader needs votes from committee members with heterogeneous opposition intensities. She sequentially offers transfers in exchange for votes. The transfers are either promises paid only if the policy passes or paid up front. With transfer promises, a vote costs nearly zero. With up-front payments, a vote can cost significantly more than zero, but the leader is better off with up-front payments. The leader does not necessarily buy the votes of those least opposed. The opposition structure most challenging to the leader involves either a homogeneous committee or a committee with two homogenous groups. Our results provide an explanation for several empirical regularities: lobbying of strongly opposed legislators, the Tullock Paradox and expansion of the whip system in the U.S. House concurrent with ideological homogenization of parties. We also discuss several extensions including private histories and simultaneous offers.
Keywords:
vote buying; legislative bargaining; coalition building
Fulltext is available at external website.
Sequential vote buying
To enact a policy, a leader needs votes from committee members with heterogeneous opposition intensities. She sequentially offers transfers in exchange for votes. The transfers are either promises ...
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