Vládní bondy a volatilita kapitálového trhu: Analýza multivariate GARCH modelem

Aliakseyeu, Aliaksei

The correlation between stock market returns and changes in bond market yields are of big interest among investors because this indicator helps them allocate their assets and diversify investment risk more effectively. An in- vestor should keep track of development of the economies of individual coun- tries, understand the causes of dissimilarities in the correlations among them and take these differences into account for successful international financial investment. The current author contributes to the existing researches by the modeling of stock-bond market co-movements using the updated datasets with focus on Central European countries and differences in public debt levels. The paper contains the empirical analysis of stock and bond market returns condi- tional correlations, modeled by the use of the Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation (AG-DCC) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Het- eroskedasticity (GARCH) specification, for nine Western and Central European countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary) that differ both by their geographic locations and economic development. The main distinctions in the correlations are ob- served during the European sovereign debt crisis. The three types of develop- ment are...

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