Má rodinná politika opravdu vliv na porodnost?

Jiráková, Zuzana

One of the main objectives of family policies in countries with low fertility levels is to stimulate birth rates and incentivize the citizens to have more children. Nevertheless, the research on whether this objective is being met remains inconclusive. In this thesis, we analyze two reforms which took place in the Czech Republic in 1995 and 2008, which adjusted the period of reception of the parental allowance. We use data from selected European OECD countries along with the synthetic control approach to construct a synthetic counterpart to the Czech Republic which gives us an idea about how fertility levels would have developed if the interventions did not take place. In both cases, 1995 reform and 2008 reform, we do not find any conclusive evidence that the interventions affected fertility levels in the Czech Republic. Moreover, we observe a change in the trend of total fertility rate about 2 years before each reform which suggests that these reforms were more likely reactions to changing fertility rates rather than remedies. JEL Classification J13, J17, J11, J12, E61, E65, F68 Keywords fertility, family policy, synthetic control estimator, parental allowance, parental leave Author's e-mail 31609261@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail barbara.pertold-gebicka@fsv.cuni.cz

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