Makro-epidemické modelování: Metoda hlubokého učení

Žemlička, Jan

I develop a novel method for computing globally accurate solutions to recur- sive macro-epidemic models featuring aggregate uncertainty and a potentially large number of state variables. Compared to the previous literature which either restricts attention to perfect-foresight economies amendable to sequence- space representation or focuses on highly simplified, low dimensional models that could can be analyzed using standard dynamic programming and linear projection techniques, I develop a deep learning-based algorithm that can han- dle rich environments featuring both aggregate uncertainty and large numbers of state variables. In addition to solving for particular model equilibria, I show how the deep learning method could be extended to solve for a whole set of models, indexed by the parameters of government policy. By pre-computing the whole equilibrium set, my deep learning method greatly simplifies compu- tation of optimal policies, since it bypasses the need to re-solve the model for many different values of policy parameters. 1

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