Yes (923)
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Does the Spillover Index Respond Significantly to Systemic Shocks? A Bootstrap-Based Probabilistic Analysis
Greenwood-Nimmo, M.; Kočenda, Evžen; Nguyen, V. H.
2021 - English
The spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (Economic Journal, 2009, vol. 119, pp. 158-171) is widely used to measure connectedness in economic and financial networks. Abrupt increases in the spillover index are typically thought to result from systemic events, but evidence of the statistical significance of this relationship is largely absent from the literature. We develop a new bootstrap-based technique to evaluate the probability that the value of the spillover index changes over an arbitrary time period following an exogenously defined event. We apply our framework to the original dataset studied by Diebold and Yilmaz and obtain qualified support for the notion that the spillover index increases in a timely and statistically significant manner in the wake of systemic shocks.
Keywords:
Spillover index; systemic events; bootstrap-after-bootstrap procedure
Fulltext is available at external website.
Does the Spillover Index Respond Significantly to Systemic Shocks? A Bootstrap-Based Probabilistic Analysis
The spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (Economic Journal, 2009, vol. 119, pp. 158-171) is widely used to measure connectedness in economic and financial networks. Abrupt increases in the ...
Organization of knowledge and taxation
Kapička, Marek; Slavík, Ctirad
2021 - English
This paper studies how labor income taxation interacts with the organization of knowledge and production, and ultimately the distribution of wages in the economy. A more progressive tax system reduces the time that managers allocate to work. This makes the organization of production less efficient and reduces wages at both tails of the distribution, which increases lower tail wage inequality and decreases upper tail wage inequality. The optimal tax system is substantially less progressive than the current one in the United States. However, if wages were exogenous, the optimal tax progressivity would be much higher.
Keywords:
inequality; knowledge based hierarchies; income taxation
Fulltext is available at external website.
Organization of knowledge and taxation
This paper studies how labor income taxation interacts with the organization of knowledge and production, and ultimately the distribution of wages in the economy. A more progressive tax system reduces ...
Form of preference misalignment linked to state-pooling structure in Bayesian persuasion
Rehák, Rastislav; Senkov, Maxim
2021 - English
We study a Bayesian persuasion model in which the state space is finite, the sender and the receiver have state-dependent quadratic loss functions, and their disagreement regarding the preferred action is of arbitrary form. This framework enables us to focus on the understudied sender’s trade-off between the informativeness of the signal and the concealment of the state-dependent disagreement about the preferred action. In particular, we study which states are pooled together in the supports of posteriors of the optimal signal. We provide an illustrative graph procedure that takes the form of preference misalignment and outputs potential representations of the state-pooling structure. Our model provides insights into situations in which the sender and the receiver care about two different but connected issues, for example, the interaction of a political advisor who cares about the state of the economy with a politician who cares about the political situation.
Keywords:
Bayesian persuasion; strategic state pooling; preference misalignment
Fulltext is available at external website.
Form of preference misalignment linked to state-pooling structure in Bayesian persuasion
We study a Bayesian persuasion model in which the state space is finite, the sender and the receiver have state-dependent quadratic loss functions, and their disagreement regarding the preferred ...
Distributed Sequential Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression
Žemlička, R.; Dedecius, Kamil
2021 - English
The zero-inflated Poisson regression model is a generalized linear model (GLM) for non-negative count variables with an excessive number of zeros. This letter proposes its low-cost distributed sequential inference from streaming data in networks with information diffusion. The model is viewed as a probabilistic mixture of a Poisson and a zero-located Dirac component, whose probabilities are estimated using a quasi-Bayesian procedure. The regression coefficients are inferred by means of a weighted Bayesian update. The network nodes share their posterior distributions using the diffusion protocol.\n
Keywords:
Poisson regression; zero inflation; GLM
Fulltext is available at external website.
Distributed Sequential Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression
The zero-inflated Poisson regression model is a generalized linear model (GLM) for non-negative count variables with an excessive number of zeros. This letter proposes its low-cost distributed ...
Extension of Working Lives in the Czech Republic: Employee Situation. Policy brief DAISIE project
Křížková, Alena; Dudová, Radka; Pospíšilová, Marie; Heřmanová, Marie
2021 - English
This policy brief summarises research project results examining ageing conditions across three sectors: transport, healthcare and banking. It aims to respond to the still insufficient discussion on the needs and opportunities of women and men of pre-retirement age and in the process of retirement in the Czech labour market. Gender and age inequalities accumulate over the life course resulting in significantly lower pensions for women compared to men or making it impossible to retire with a decent pension. Uniform retirement ages does not suit everyone equally. The organisation of work in specific occupations has specific negative effects on the health of older women and men. Changes in profession, position or working time in pre-retirement age is not easily obtainable. The policy brief suggests recommendations for state and policy makers, employers as well as good practice examples. Also published in Czech: https://www.soc.cas.cz/sites/default/files/publikace/daisie_policy_brief_cz.pdf
Keywords:
ageing; extension of working lives; retirement and pension policy; gender and age inequality; life course
Available in digital repository of the ASCR
Extension of Working Lives in the Czech Republic: Employee Situation. Policy brief DAISIE project
This policy brief summarises research project results examining ageing conditions across three sectors: transport, healthcare and banking. It aims to respond to the still insufficient discussion on ...
The Position of Women in Czech Science. 2019 Monitoring Report
Vomáčka, Aleš
2021 - English
The report provides information on the representation of women and men in several areas relevant to the research and development sector in the Czech Republic. The proportion of women students has increased over the last 15 years at all levels of study. In doctoral studies (by 9 percentage points) and in master's studies (by 12 percentage points). However, the proportion of men and women among researchers remains unchanged over time across all disciplines. Women accounted for 26% of researchers in 2005 and 24% in 2019 (in FTE). In European comparison, the Czech Republic is one of the countries with the lowest representation of women in research.
Keywords:
science; women; representation
Fulltext is available at external website.
The Position of Women in Czech Science. 2019 Monitoring Report
The report provides information on the representation of women and men in several areas relevant to the research and development sector in the Czech Republic. The proportion of women students has ...
Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms’ and Consumers’ Expectations
Pinter, J.; Kočenda, Evžen
2021 - English
We empirically investigate whether monetary policy announcements affect firms’ and consumers’ expectations by taking into account media treatments of monetary policy announcements. To identify exogenous changes in monetary policy stances, we use the standard financial monetary policy surprise measures in the euro area. We then analyze how a general newspaper and a financial newspaper (Le Monde and The Financial Times) report on announcements. We find that 87 % of monetary policy surprises are either not associated with the general newspaper reporting a change in the monetary policy stance to their readers or have a sign that is inconsistent with the media report of the announcement. When we use the raw monetary policy surprises variable as an independent variable in the link between monetary policy announcements and firms’/consumers’ expectations, we mostly do not find, in line with several previous studies, any statistically significant association. When we take only monetary policy surprises that are consistent with the general newspaper report, in almost all cases we find that monetary policy surprises on the immediate monetary policy stance do affect expectations. Surprises related to future policy inclination and information shocks usually do not appear to matter. The results appear to be in line with rational inattention theories and highlight the need for caution in the use of monetary policy surprise measures for macroeconomic investigations.
Keywords:
firm expectations; consumer expectations; monetary policy surprises; European Central Bank; information effect
Fulltext is available at external website.
Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms’ and Consumers’ Expectations
We empirically investigate whether monetary policy announcements affect firms’ and consumers’ expectations by taking into account media treatments of monetary policy announcements. To identify ...
Czech kurzarbeit: evidence from the first pandemic wave
Jurajda, Štěpán; Doleželová, P.
2021 - English
We describe the firm-type structure of the use of the main Czech kurzarbeit program (called Antivirus B) during the spring 2020 pandemic wave. Evidence based on the Structure of Earnings Survey shows large participation gaps in favor of large employers, and disproportionately high intensity of use of the program by manufacturing companies, in particular those exhibiting a declining wage bill already prior to the pandemic. Compared to other industries, manufacturing is thus able to ‘cover’ by kurzarbeit support the largest share of the decline in hours worked between the 2nd quarters of 2019 and 2020, with the exception of the hospitality and culture industries, which were directly affected by pandemic measures, such as restaurant closures.
Keywords:
kurzarbeit; COVID-19; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Czech kurzarbeit: evidence from the first pandemic wave
We describe the firm-type structure of the use of the main Czech kurzarbeit program (called Antivirus B) during the spring 2020 pandemic wave. Evidence based on the Structure of Earnings Survey shows ...
LATE estimators under costly non-compliance in student-college matching markets
Drlje, M.; Jurajda, Štěpán
2021 - English
A growing literature exploits a feature of centralized college admission systems where students with similar admission scores in a neighborhood of a school’s admission threshold are or are not offered admission based on small quasi-random differences in admission scores. Assuming that the students at the margin of admission differ only in the treatment assignment, this literature relies on admission scores to instrument for admission or graduation. We point out that non-compliance with the centralized matching assignment typically corresponds to enrolling in one’s preferred program a year after the initial assignment, introducing significant non-compliance costs. We show that with costly non-compliance, the exclusion restriction, the key assumption of the LATE theorem, is violated, leading to biased estimates when instrumenting for graduation, i.e., for a treatment taking place after non-compliance costs are incurred. We use data from a student-college matching market in Croatia to illustrate the empirical importance of this potential source of bias and propose a method inspired by Lee (2009), which recovers the treatment effect bounds under the assumption that the costs of non-compliance are not related to the treatment assignment.
Keywords:
LATE theorem; exclusion restriction; college admission
Fulltext is available at external website.
LATE estimators under costly non-compliance in student-college matching markets
A growing literature exploits a feature of centralized college admission systems where students with similar admission scores in a neighborhood of a school’s admission threshold are or are not offered ...
Make your own luck: the wage gains from starting college in a bad economy
Bičáková, Alena; Cortes, G. M.; Mazza, J.
2021 - English
Using data for nearly 40 cohorts of American college graduates and exploiting regional variation in economic conditions, we show robust evidence of a positive relationship between the unemployment rate at the time of college enrollment and subsequent annual earnings, particularly for women. This positive relationship cannot be explained by selection into employment or by economic conditions at the time of graduation. Changes in major field of study account for only about 10% of the observed earnings gains. The results are consistent with intensified effort exerted by students who experience bad economic times at the beginning of their studies.
Keywords:
business cycle; higher education; cohort effects
Fulltext is available at external website.
Make your own luck: the wage gains from starting college in a bad economy
Using data for nearly 40 cohorts of American college graduates and exploiting regional variation in economic conditions, we show robust evidence of a positive relationship between the unemployment ...
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