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Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, M.; Schmidt, T.
2023 - English
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.
Keywords:
inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey
Fulltext is available at external website.
Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of ...
Czech women’s heads and hands remain unused
Grossmann, Jakub; Münich, Daniel
2023 - Czech
This analysis maps life-long profiles in the unemployment rate and hours worked by Czech women and changes in these over the past twenty years. Its key findings are presented in the form of graphs with commentary. The economic and statistic details are provided in the accompanying texts. Tato analýza mapuje celoživotní profily míry zaměstnanosti a odpracované doby Češek a změny za posledních dvacet let. Klíčová zjištění jsou popsána formou komentovaných grafů. Ekonomické a statistické detaily jsou popsány v doprovodných textech.
Keywords:
labour market; women; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Czech women’s heads and hands remain unused
This analysis maps life-long profiles in the unemployment rate and hours worked by Czech women and changes in these over the past twenty years. Its key findings are presented in the form of graphs ...
Evolution in Czech public attitudes towards war refugees from Ukraine
Münich, Daniel; Protivínský, Tomáš
2023 - Czech
In the wake of Russia’s military assault on Ukraine at the end of February 2022, an atmosphere of solidarity prevailed in the Czech Republic and most of the Czech population supported the country’s intake of war refugees. By the end of November 2022, that support had fallen by approximately one quarter. Czechs’ perceptions of how well integrated Ukrainians were into Czech society worsened similarly. This change in Czech public attitudes over time did not, however, stem primarily from personal or first hand experience of welcoming refugees, rather, it was related to a gradual decrease in public interest in the conflict after the initial shock of it first beginning. Although several aspects of Ukrainian refugees’ integration improved in real terms in the second half of 2022, for example in relation to schools and to the labour market, this progress was not reflected in Czech public opinion. Po vojenském útoku Ruska na Ukrajinu koncem února 2022 v Česku převládla atmosféra solidarity a většina Čechů přijímání válečných uprchlíků podporovala. Tato podpora do konce listopadu klesla zhruba o čtvrtinu. Podobně se zhoršovala vnímaná míra integrace Ukrajinců do české společnosti. Změna postojů české společnosti v čase však nevycházela primárně z osobní zkušenosti a z prožitého příchodu uprchlíků, ale souvisela spíše s postupně opadávajícím zájmem po vypuknutí konfliktu a prvotním šoku. Ačkoli se integrace Ukrajinců v některých dimenzích ve druhé polovině roku 2022 reálně zlepšila, například ve školách nebo na trhu práce, do vnímání české společnosti se tyto dílčí pokroky nepromítly.
Keywords:
Ukrainian refugees; views and attitudes; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Evolution in Czech public attitudes towards war refugees from Ukraine
In the wake of Russia’s military assault on Ukraine at the end of February 2022, an atmosphere of solidarity prevailed in the Czech Republic and most of the Czech population supported the country’s ...
Would real house prices risen more slowly if more new housing had been built in 2013–2021? Probably not
Šustek, R.; Zapletalová, Lucie
2023 - Czech
This study presents an easily applicable method for the study of price trends in residential property markets and the factors that affect them. The study describes the basic reasoning behind the method and presents results of using it to analyse house price increases in the Czech Republic during the period of 2013-2021, and to analyse various future housing market scenarios. Tato studie představuje snadno aplikovatelnou metodu pro studium vývoje cen rezidenčních nemovitostí a faktorů, které je ovlivňují. Obsahem studie je popis základní logiky metody, výsledky jejího použití k analýze růstu cen nemovitostí v ČR v letech 2013–2021 a výsledky analýzy možných budoucích scénářů.
Keywords:
residential property markets; house prices; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Would real house prices risen more slowly if more new housing had been built in 2013–2021? Probably not
This study presents an easily applicable method for the study of price trends in residential property markets and the factors that affect them. The study describes the basic reasoning behind the ...
The public on energy management - autumn 2022
Červenka, Jan; Ďurďovič, Martin
2023 - Czech
In the period from the first half of September to the beginning of November 2022, a block of questions devoted to energy issues was included in the regular research of Our Society. Part of the questions focused on the issue of energy management. The survey specifically investigated how the households of the respondents manage to cover the costs of electricity, fuel and water consumption, whether they have concerns regarding the provision of heating in the Czech Republic, what, in their opinion, are the possibilities of reducing energy consumption in their household and whether the development of the energy market will make their household to reduce consumption.\nAlmost half (47%) of the respondents' households find it difficult to cover the costs of electricity consumption, the share of those who find it difficult to cover the costs of natural gas or solid fuels was around two fifths of the households that use them (43% for natural gas, 39% for solid fuels).\nAccording to respondents, three out of ten households find it difficult to cover the costs of water consumption.\nCompared to 2018, the situation with paying the costs of electricity, fuel and water consumption worsened, most significantly in the case of electricity consumption, where the share of those who have difficulty paying these costs increased from 26% to 47%.\nDifficulties in covering the costs of electricity, fuel and water consumption are strongly dependent on the income situation and standard of living of the household, but also on its composition, with households in which people live alone having a relatively worse situation.\nThree quarters (74%) of Czechs expressed concern about the provision of heating in the Czech Republic.\nOnly 7% of respondents think that there are big opportunities to reduce energy consumption in their home, 30% see none and 60% see only small ones.\nAt the same time, three-quarters (75%) of Czechs thought that the development of the energy market would force them to reduce consumption, and a quarter (25%) thought that significantly. V období od první poloviny září do počátku listopadu 2022 byl do pravidelného výzkumu Naše společnost zařazen blok otázek věnovaných problematice energetiky. Část otázek se zaměřila na problematiku hospodaření s energiemi. Šetření konkrétně zjišťovalo, jak se domácnostem respondentů daří hradit náklady na spotřebu elektřiny, topiva a vody, zda mají obavy ohledně zajištění vytápění v ČR, jaké jsou podle jejich názoru možnosti snížení spotřeby energií v jejich domácnosti a zda vývoj na trhu s energiemi přiměje jejich domácnost ke snížení spotřeby.\nTéměř polovina (47 %) domácností respondentů jen obtížně hradí náklady na spotřebu elektřiny, podíl těch, které obtížně hradí náklady na zemní plyn nebo tuhá paliva, se v rámci domácností, jež je používají, pohyboval okolo dvou pětin (43 % u zemního plynu, 39 % u tuhých paliv).\nTři z deseti domácností podle vyjádření respondentů obtížně hradí náklady na spotřebu vody.\nV porovnání s rokem 2018 se situace s hrazením nákladů na spotřebu elektřiny, topiva i vody zhoršila, nejvýrazněji pak v případě spotřeby elektřiny, kde podíl těch, kdo tyto náklady hradí obtížně, vzrostl z 26 % na 47 %.\nObtíže s hrazením nákladů na spotřebu elektřiny, topiva a vody jsou silně závislé na příjmové situaci a životní úrovni domácnosti, ale také na jejím složení, přičemž relativně hůře jsou na tom domácnosti, ve kterých žijí lidé osaměle.\nTři čtvrtiny (74 %) Čechů vyjadřovaly obavy o zajištění vytápění v ČR.\nJen 7 % dotázaných si myslí, že v jejich domácnosti jsou velké možnosti ke snižování spotřeby energie, 30 % nevidí žádné a 60 % vidí pouze malé.\nTři čtvrtiny (75 %) Čechů přitom soudily, že vývoj na trhu s energiemi je donutí snížit spotřebu, v tom čtvrtina (25 %) si myslela, že výrazně.
Keywords:
public opinion; reduce consumption; electricity; Energy; fuel; water
Fulltext is available at external website.
The public on energy management - autumn 2022
In the period from the first half of September to the beginning of November 2022, a block of questions devoted to energy issues was included in the regular research of Our Society. Part of the ...
Tolerance to Selected Groups of Population - February/March 2023
Tuček, Milan
2023 - Czech
In February and March 2023 Public Opinion Research Centre focused on social distance among the majority population and different social groups. Social distance was measured by a specific question: people should pick from a list of 15 different groups those, which they would not like to have as neighbours. V rámci pravidelného výzkumu Naše společnost jsme v únoru a březnu 2023 zjišťovali postoje obyvatel České republiky k různým skupinám obyvatel. Míru sociální distance jsme zjišťovali otázkou, zda by zda by dotyčný nechtěl mít dané lidi za sousedy.\nNejnižší tolerance je k lidem drogově závislým, za sousedy by je nechtělo mít devět desetin dotázaných. Dalšími odmítnutými jsou lidé závislí na alkoholu a lidé s kriminální minulostí – sousedství s nimi odmítá 69 %, resp. 64 % dotázaných.\nNaopak ani chudí, ani bohatí nejsou nevítanými sousedy – odmítají je jen zanedbatelná 2 % dotázaných, resp. 5 % dotázaných.\nSedmina dotázaných odmítá sousedství s lidmi jiné barvy pleti a s cizinci, žijícími v ČR.\nMíra tolerance ke zkoumaným skupinám byla v dlouhodobé perspektivě – mezi roky 2003 až 2020 - víceméně stabilní. Letos ovšem došlo k významnému snížení odmítnutí sousedství u většiny sledovaných skupin (převážně o 10 a více procentních bodů).\nOproti prvnímu měření postupně pokleslo odmítání lidí s homosexuální orientací na zhruba polovinu, letos dokonce na čtvrtinu (ze 42 % na letošních 11 % dotázaných).\nOdmítání cizinců, lidí s jinou barvou pleti, muslimů a také homosexuálů se podle očekávání liší podle dosaženého vzdělání, věku a životní úrovně. Nejmladší věková kohorta je výrazně tolerantnější k drogově závislým a alkoholikům.
Keywords:
public opinion; tolerance; different social groups; majority population
Fulltext is available at external website.
Tolerance to Selected Groups of Population - February/March 2023
In February and March 2023 Public Opinion Research Centre focused on social distance among the majority population and different social groups. Social distance was measured by a specific question: ...
Different Boundary Conditions For LES Solver PALM 6.0 Used for ABL in Tunnel Experiment
Řezníček, Hynek; Geletič, Jan; Bureš, Martin; Krč, Pavel; Resler, Jaroslav; Vrbová, Kateřina; Trush, Arsenii; Michálek, Petr; Beneš, L.; Sühring, M.
2023 - English
We tried to reproduce results measured in the wind tunnel experiment with a CFD simulation provided by numerical model PALM. A realistic buildings layout from the Prague-Dejvice quarter has been chosen as a testing domain because solid validation campaign for PALM simulation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) over this quarter was documented in the past. The question of input data needed for such simulation and capability of the model to capture correctly the inlet profile and its turbulence structure provided by the wind-tunnel is discussed in the study The PALM dynamical core contains a solver for the Navier-Stokes equations. By default, the model uses the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) approach in which the bulk of the turbulent motions is explicitly resolved. It is well validated tool for simulations of the complex air-flow within the real urban canopy and also within its reduced scale provided by wind tunnel experiments. However the computed flow field between the testing buildings did not correspond well to the measured wind velocity in some points. Different setting of the inlet boundary condition was tested but none of them gave completely developed turbulent flow generated by vortex generators and castellated barrier wall place at the entrance of the aerodynamic section of the wind tunnel.
Keywords:
large eddy simulation; wind tunnel; atmospheric boundary layer; PALM model; turbulence
Fulltext is available at external website.
Different Boundary Conditions For LES Solver PALM 6.0 Used for ABL in Tunnel Experiment
We tried to reproduce results measured in the wind tunnel experiment with a CFD simulation provided by numerical model PALM. A realistic buildings layout from the Prague-Dejvice quarter has been ...
What the data says about generations X and Y: when our parents were as young as we are
Peňázová, Eva; Šoltés, Michal
2023 - Czech
This study presents a unique comparison of the lives of generation Y (millennials, born in 1981–1996) and those of generation X (their parents, born in 1965–1980) at the same age, based on available statistics related to education levels, relationships, and relative earnings.\n Studie představuje unikátní srovnání současného života generace Y, tzv. mileniálů (narozeni 1981–1996), s generací X jejich rodičů (narozeni 1965–1980) na základě dostupných statistik týkajících se úrovně vzdělanosti, partnerských vztahů či relativních výdělků.
Keywords:
generation Y; generation X; income and living conditions
Fulltext is available at external website.
What the data says about generations X and Y: when our parents were as young as we are
This study presents a unique comparison of the lives of generation Y (millennials, born in 1981–1996) and those of generation X (their parents, born in 1965–1980) at the same age, based on available ...
On the structure and values of betweenness centrality in dense betweenness-uniform graphs
Ghanbari, B.; Hartman, David; Jelínek, V.; Pokorná, Aneta; Šámal, R.; Valtr, P.
2023 - English
Betweenness centrality is a network centrality measure based on the amount of shortest paths passing through a given vertex. A graph is betweenness-uniform (BUG)if all vertices have an equal value of betweenness centrality. In this contribution, we focus on betweenness-uniform graphs with betweenness centrality below one. We disprove a conjecture about the existence of a BUG with betweenness value α for any rational numberαfrom the interval (3/4,∞) by showing that only very few betweenness centrality values below 6/7 are attained for at least one BUG. Furthermore, among graphs with diameter at least three, there are no betweenness-uniform graphs with a betweenness centrality smaller than one. In graphs of smaller diameter, the same can be shown under a uniformity condition on the components of the complement.
Keywords:
betweenness; graphs
Available in digital repository of the ASCR
On the structure and values of betweenness centrality in dense betweenness-uniform graphs
Betweenness centrality is a network centrality measure based on the amount of shortest paths passing through a given vertex. A graph is betweenness-uniform (BUG)if all vertices have an equal value of ...
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2023 - English
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend the set of observable variables to include the data on consumption, investment, output, and inflation expectations, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By doing so, we aim to discipline the dynamics of model-based expectations and evaluate alternative belief models. Our approach to exploit the timely information from surveys is based on re-specification of structural shocks into persistent and transitory components. Due to the SPF, we are able to improve identification of fundamental shocks and predictive power of the model by separating the sources of low and high frequency volatility. Furthermore, we show that models with an imperfectly-rational expectation formation mechanism based on Adaptive Learning (AL) can reduce important limitations implied by the Rational Expectation (RE) hypothesis. More specifically, our models based on belief updating can better capture macroeconomic trend shifts and, as a result, achieve superior long-term predictions. In addition, the AL mechanism can produce realistic time variation in the transmission of shocks and perceived macro-economic volatility, which allows the model to better explain the investment dynamics. Finally, AL models, which relax the RE constraint of internal consistency between the agents’ and model forecasts, can reproduce the main features of agents’ predictions in line with SPF evidence and, at the same time, can generate improved model forecasts, thus diminishing possible inefficiencies present in surveys.
Keywords:
expectations; survey data; adaptive learning
Fulltext is available at external website.
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend ...
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