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Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2023 - anglický
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend the set of observable variables to include the data on consumption, investment, output, and inflation expectations, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By doing so, we aim to discipline the dynamics of model-based expectations and evaluate alternative belief models. Our approach to exploit the timely information from surveys is based on re-specification of structural shocks into persistent and transitory components. Due to the SPF, we are able to improve identification of fundamental shocks and predictive power of the model by separating the sources of low and high frequency volatility. Furthermore, we show that models with an imperfectly-rational expectation formation mechanism based on Adaptive Learning (AL) can reduce important limitations implied by the Rational Expectation (RE) hypothesis. More specifically, our models based on belief updating can better capture macroeconomic trend shifts and, as a result, achieve superior long-term predictions. In addition, the AL mechanism can produce realistic time variation in the transmission of shocks and perceived macro-economic volatility, which allows the model to better explain the investment dynamics. Finally, AL models, which relax the RE constraint of internal consistency between the agents’ and model forecasts, can reproduce the main features of agents’ predictions in line with SPF evidence and, at the same time, can generate improved model forecasts, thus diminishing possible inefficiencies present in surveys.
Klíčová slova:
expectations; survey data; adaptive learning
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend ...
Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents
Pertold, Filip; Sinani, S.; Šoltés, M.
2023 - anglický
The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in childcare preferences as a potential factor that contributes to the child penalty. We surveyed Czech parents and elicited the minimal compensation they would require to stay home to care for a child. Mothers require less compensation for childcare than fathers. The estimated gender gap in childcare preferences is CZK 2,500 monthly, 7.6% of the median female wage, and cannot be explained by differences in labor market opportunities or prosocial motives to care for a family member. We further document widespread misperception of fathers’ preferences, as respondents incorrectly expect fathers to require less to care for a child than to care for an elderly parent.\n
Klíčová slova:
childcare; gender wage gap; gender employment gap
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents
The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in ...
Ambiguity in Stochastic Optimization Problems with Nonlinear Dependence on a Probability Measure via Wasserstein Metric
Kaňková, Vlasta
2023 - anglický
Many economic and financial applications lead to deterministic optimization problems depending on a probability measure. It happens very often (in applications) that these problems have to be solved on the data base. Point estimates of an optimal value and estimates of an optimal solutionset can be obtained by this approach. A consistency, a rate of convergence and normal properties, of these estimates, have been discussed (many times) not only under assumptions of independent data corresponding to the distributions with light tails, but also for weak dependent data and the distributions with heavy tails. However, it is also possible to estimate (on the data base) a confidence intervals and bounds for the optimal value and the optimal solutions. To analyze this approach we focus on a special case of static problems depending nonlineary on the probability measure. Stability results based on the Wasserstein metric and the Valander approach will be employed for the above mentioned analysis.
Klíčová slova:
Stochastic optimization problems; static problems; empirical measure; point estimates; interval estimates; nonlinear dependence
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Ambiguity in Stochastic Optimization Problems with Nonlinear Dependence on a Probability Measure via Wasserstein Metric
Many economic and financial applications lead to deterministic optimization problems depending on a probability measure. It happens very often (in applications) that these problems have to be solved ...
Dissolved and gaseous nitrogen losses in forests controlled by soil nutrient stoichiometry
Oulehle, Filip; Chuman, T.; Hruška, Jakub; Krám, Pavel; Navrátil, Tomáš; Tesař, Miroslav; Ač, Alexander; Urban, Otmar
2023 - anglický
This study investigates the consequences of chronic nitrogen deposition in forests, including its effects on soil and surface water quality, and greenhouse gas emissions. To predict these effects, the authors explore the controls over dissolved and gaseous nitrogen fluxes in temperate forests. Their findings indicate that stream leaching losses of dissolved nitrogen correspond with the nutrient stoichiometry\nof the forest floor, with stream N losses increasing as ecosystems progress towards phosphorus limitation. Soil nitrogen storage increases with oxalate extractable iron and aluminium content. The authors estimate soil gaseous losses based on 15 N stocks, which averaged 2.5±2.2 kg N ha-1 year-1 , comprising 20±14% of total nitrogen deposition. They also extrapolate the current gaseous nitrogen loss flux from forests globally to be 8.9 Tg N year-1 , which represents 39% of current nitrogen deposition to forests worldwide.
Klíčová slova:
nitrogen; catchment; isotope; mass balance; denitrification; carbon; sequestration
Plné texty jsou dostupné v digitálním repozitáři Akademie Věd.
Dissolved and gaseous nitrogen losses in forests controlled by soil nutrient stoichiometry
This study investigates the consequences of chronic nitrogen deposition in forests, including its effects on soil and surface water quality, and greenhouse gas emissions. To predict these effects, the ...
Hazardous components: A case study in textile waste management
Shtukaturova, Anastasia
2023 - anglický
Textile waste, a problem that has been somewhat overlooked for many years, is now coming to the fore.1 The textile value chain is long\nand complex, with over 8000 chemicals used in different manufacturing processes.2 A wide variety of chemicals are used in the manufacture of textile products for the improvement of essential properties and performance of textiles. Chemicals used in textiles significantly improve their quality and appearance. However, the harmful effects of these chemicals can occur at various stages of textile production and processing, such as dyeing, printing and finishing, as well as during use by consumers and at the end-of-life stage.3 There is a lack of safety information on the presence and use of all of these chemicals in consumer products.
Klíčová slova:
textile waste; waste management; chemicals
Plné texty jsou dostupné v digitálním repozitáři NUŠL
Hazardous components: A case study in textile waste management
Textile waste, a problem that has been somewhat overlooked for many years, is now coming to the fore.1 The textile value chain is long\nand complex, with over 8000 chemicals used in different ...
Properties and use of high-temperature biochar
Sedmihradská, Anežka
2023 - anglický
Despite being a hot topic in environmental research, biochar and its properties have been mainly investigated from the perspectives of feedstock type and pyrolysis temperature. Few studies have explored the effect of particle size on biochar properties.Even when the effect of particle size on crop efficiency is recognized, there is a lack of corresponding data and analysis.2–7 Therefore, we thoroughly analyzed (proximate and ultimate analysis, SEM, XRD, Raman spectroscopy) four particle size fractions (< 0.5, 0.5–2, 2–5, > 5 mm) of high-temperature biochar from a gasification power plant, the sizes reflecting those of biochar actually used in agriculture. The < 0.5 mm fraction was significantly different in terms of carbon structure, and carbon and ash content. Consequently, pH, electric conductivity and heavy metal content also differed greatly. The corresponding results for the other particle fractions were broadly similar to each other. Interestingly, for all fractions, the porosity and H/C ratio were independent of particle size, meaning that, regardless of size, the investigated biochar fractions are equally stable in soil. The 0.5–2 mm fraction was then selected to be used in different industrial or agricultural processes such as the anaerobic digestion of wastewater or livestock feeding. The effect of biochar on these processes is currently under investigation, providing only initial data so far.
Klíčová slova:
biochar; particle size on biochar; high-temperature biochar
Plné texty jsou dostupné v digitálním repozitáři NUŠL
Properties and use of high-temperature biochar
Despite being a hot topic in environmental research, biochar and its properties have been mainly investigated from the perspectives of feedstock type and pyrolysis temperature. Few studies have ...
Vertical gradients of atmospheric aerosols chemical composition
Kovářík, Jiří
2023 - anglický
The aim of this work is to obtain data on the chemical composition of aerosols at two heights (4–5 metres above ground and at 230 metres on the atmospheric tower’s measurement platform). The following and sampling techniques will be used: Aerosol Mass\nSpectrometry) – in combination with PMF (Positive Matrix Factorisation), Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor and Particle Into Liquid Sampler coupled with Ion Chromatography.
Klíčová slova:
aerosols; analytical methods; chemical composition
Plné texty jsou dostupné v digitálním repozitáři NUŠL
Vertical gradients of atmospheric aerosols chemical composition
The aim of this work is to obtain data on the chemical composition of aerosols at two heights (4–5 metres above ground and at 230 metres on the atmospheric tower’s measurement platform). The following ...
Liquid mixing time and gas holdup in a bubble column bioreactor
Terentyak, Mark
2023 - anglický
The aim of the research is the experimental study of homogenisation and saeration in a bubble column in dependence on operational conditions and aspect ratio.
Klíčová slova:
bubble column bioreactor; gas holdup; experiments
Plné texty jsou dostupné v digitálním repozitáři NUŠL
Liquid mixing time and gas holdup in a bubble column bioreactor
The aim of the research is the experimental study of homogenisation and saeration in a bubble column in dependence on operational conditions and aspect ratio.
Programs and Algorithms of Numerical Mathematics 21 : Jablonec nad Nisou, June 19-24, 2022 : Proceedings of Seminar
Chleboun, J.; Kůs, Pavel; Papež, Jan; Rozložník, Miroslav; Segeth, Karel; Šístek, Jakub
2023 - anglický
These proceedings contain peer-reviewed papers that are based on the invited lectures, short communications, and posters presented at the 21st seminar Programs and Algorithms of Numerical Mathematics (PANM) held in Merkur Hotel, Jablonec nad Nisou, Czech Republic, June 19-24, 2022.\nThe seminar was organized by the Institute of Mathematics of the Czech Academy of Sciences under the auspices of EU-MATHS-IN.CZ, Czech Network for Mathematics in Industry, and with the nancial support provided by the RSJ Foundation. It continued the previous seminars on mathematical software and numerical methods held (biennially, with only one exception) in Alšovice, Bratříkov, Janov nad Nisou, Kořenov, Lázně Libverda, Dolní Maxov, Prague, and Hejnice in the period 1983-2020. The objective of this series of seminars is to provide a forum for presenting and discussing advanced topics in numerical analysis, computer implementation of numerical algorithms, new approaches to mathematical modeling, and single- or multi-processor applications of computational methods.
Klíčová slova:
numerical mathematics
Plné texty jsou dostupné v digitálním repozitáři Akademie Věd.
Programs and Algorithms of Numerical Mathematics 21 : Jablonec nad Nisou, June 19-24, 2022 : Proceedings of Seminar
These proceedings contain peer-reviewed papers that are based on the invited lectures, short communications, and posters presented at the 21st seminar Programs and Algorithms of Numerical Mathematics ...
Statistical Method Selection Matters: Vanilla Methods in Regression May Yield Misleading Results
Kalina, Jan
2023 - anglický
The primary aim of this work is to illustrate the importance of the choice of the appropriate methods for the statistical analysis of economic data. Typically, there exist several alternative versions of common statistical methods for every statistical modeling task\nand the most habitually used (“vanilla”) versions may yield rather misleading results in nonstandard situations. Linear regression is considered here as the most fundamental econometric model. First, the analysis of a world tourism dataset is presented, where the number of international arrivals is modeled for 140 countries of the world as a response of 14 pillars (indicators) of the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index. Heteroscedasticity is clearly recognized in the dataset. However, the Aitken estimator, which would be the standard remedy in such a situation, is revealed here to be very inappropriate. Regression quantiles represent a much more suitable solution here. The second illustration with artificial data reveals standard regression quantiles to be unsuitable for data contaminated by outlying values. Their recently proposed robust version turns out to be much more appropriate. Both\nillustrations reveal that choosing suitable methods represent an important (and often difficult) part of the analysis of economic data.
Klíčová slova:
linear regression; assumptions; non-standard situations; robustness; diagnostics
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Statistical Method Selection Matters: Vanilla Methods in Regression May Yield Misleading Results
The primary aim of this work is to illustrate the importance of the choice of the appropriate methods for the statistical analysis of economic data. Typically, there exist several alternative versions ...
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