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Sentencing decisions around quantity thresholds: theory and experiment
Drápal, Jakub; Šoltés, Michal
2021 - English
We study the implications of the structure of criminal codes on sentencing decisions. To limit sentencing disparities, criminal codes typically divide offenses into subsections with specific sentencing ranges. The classification into corresponding subsections often depends on exceeding a given quantity threshold, such as drug amount. We study the consequences of these quantity thresholds on sentencing decisions and argue that the threshold effect can be decomposed into two opposing mechanisms: the severity mechanism and the reference one. An experiment with Czech prosecutors shows that thresholds drive substantial increases in sentences, leading to sentencing disparities. We further introduce empirical measures of (in)justice and quantify the consequences of quantity thresholds on the probability of imposing a just sentence.
Keywords:
sentencing; quantity threshold; sentencing disparities
Fulltext is available at external website.
Sentencing decisions around quantity thresholds: theory and experiment
We study the implications of the structure of criminal codes on sentencing decisions. To limit sentencing disparities, criminal codes typically divide offenses into subsections with specific ...
Checkmate! Losing with borders, winning with centers. The case of European integration
Kapanadze, Ketevani
2021 - English
This paper studies two major stages of European integration, the expansion of the European Union (EU) in 2004 and the Schengen Area in 2008, and their impacts on economic performance in subregions of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Using European regional data at the NUTS3 level and disaggregated synthetic control method, I construct counterfactuals for sub-regions of CEE countries. This approach allows me to assess regional treatment effects (RTEs) and to study the heterogeneous effects of European integration. I find that the benefits of EU and Schengen memberships to annual GDP per capita are approximately 10% less in border regions, relative to interior areas. The results expose regional economic disparities, as border regions lose relative to interior regions since European integration. Furthermore, integration facilitators in border regions such as fewer geographical barriers, more service employment, and positive attitudes toward the EU did not reduce economic disparities. The results show that the gap persists, regardless of some complementarities. Thus, the main implication of this paper is that sub-regions of CEE countries are far from being fully converged, and that European integration instead seems to have spurred sub-regional divergence.
Keywords:
CEE countries; European integration; RTEs
Fulltext is available at external website.
Checkmate! Losing with borders, winning with centers. The case of European integration
This paper studies two major stages of European integration, the expansion of the European Union (EU) in 2004 and the Schengen Area in 2008, and their impacts on economic performance in subregions of ...
Wages, minimum wages, and price pass-through: the case of McDonald's restaurants
Ashenfelter, O.; Jurajda, Štěpán
2021 - English
We use highly consistent national-coverage price and wage data to provide evidence on wage increases, labor-saving technology introduction, and price pass-through by a large low-wage employer facing minimum wage hikes. Based on 2016-2020 hourly wage rates of McDonald’s Basic Crew and prices of the Big Mac sandwich collected simultaneously from almost all US McDonald’s restaurants, we find that in about 25% of instances of minimum wage increases, restaurants display a tendency to keep constant their wage ‘premium’ above the increasing minimum wage. Higher minimum wages are not associated with faster adoption of touch-screen ordering, and there is near-full price pass-through of minimum wages, with little heterogeneity related to how binding minimum wage increases are for restaurants. Minimum wage hikes lead to increases in real wages (expressed in Big Macs an hour of Basic Crew work can buy) that are one fifth lower than the corresponding increases in nominal wages.
Keywords:
minimum wages; wage increases; McDonald’s
Fulltext is available at external website.
Wages, minimum wages, and price pass-through: the case of McDonald's restaurants
We use highly consistent national-coverage price and wage data to provide evidence on wage increases, labor-saving technology introduction, and price pass-through by a large low-wage employer facing ...
Firm relocations, commuting and relationship stability
Hrehová, Kristína; Sandow, E.; Lindgren, U.
2021 - English
In this paper, we study the impact of firm relocations on commuting distance and the probability of married couples and cohabiting couples with children separating. We use Swedish register data for 2010-2016 and select employees of relocating firms with one workplace and more than 10 employees. Focusing on this sample allows us to use plausibly exogenous variation in the commuting distance arising from the relocation. We extend the literature on the effect of commuting on relationship stability by reducing the possibility for unobserved time-variant factors to bias our estimates. While previous literature has focused on the difference between short- and long-distance commuting, we focus on changes in the commuting distance that are externally induced by firm management. We find a small but statistically significant negative effect of increased firm relocation distance on family stability. A 10 km change in commuting distance leads to a 0.09 percentage point higher probability of separation if the commuter remains with the firm for the next 5 years.
Keywords:
separation; marriage; commuting time
Fulltext is available at external website.
Firm relocations, commuting and relationship stability
In this paper, we study the impact of firm relocations on commuting distance and the probability of married couples and cohabiting couples with children separating. We use Swedish register data for ...
Shifting punishment on minorities: experimental evidence of scapegoating
Bauer, Michal; Cahlíková, J.; Chytilová, Julie; Roland, G.; Želinský, T.
2021 - English
This paper provides experimental evidence showing that members of a majority group systematically shift punishment on innocent members of an ethnic minority. We develop a new incentivized task, the Punishing the Scapegoat Game, to measure how injustice affecting a member of one’s own group shapes punishment of an unrelated bystander (“a scapegoat”). We manipulate the ethnic identity of the scapegoats and study interactions between the majority group and the Roma minority in Slovakia. We find that when no harm is done, there is no evidence of discrimination against the ethnic minority. In contrast, when a member of one’s own group is harmed, the punishment ”passed” on innocent individuals more than doubles when they are from the minority, as compared to when they are from the dominant group. These results illuminate how individualized tensions can be transformed into a group conflict, dragging minorities into conflicts in a way that is completely unrelated to their behavior.
Keywords:
punishment; minority groups; inter-group conflict
Fulltext is available at external website.
Shifting punishment on minorities: experimental evidence of scapegoating
This paper provides experimental evidence showing that members of a majority group systematically shift punishment on innocent members of an ethnic minority. We develop a new incentivized task, the ...
Forced migration, staying minorities, and new societies: evidence from post-war Czechoslovakia
Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán; Roesel, F.
2021 - English
Forced migration traumatizes millions displaced from their homes, but little is known about the few who manage to stay and become a minority in a new society. We study the case of German stayers in Sudetenland, a region from which Czechoslovakia expelled ethnic Germans after World War Two. The unexpected presence of the US Army in parts of 1945 Czechoslovakia resulted in more anti-fascist Germans avoiding displacement compared to regions liberated by the Red Army. We study the long-run impacts of this local variation in the presence of left-leaning stayers and find that Communist party support and local party cell frequencies, as well as far-left values and social policies are more pronounced today where anti-fascist Germans stayed in larger numbers. Our findings also suggest that political identity supplanted German ethnic identity among anti-fascist stayers. The German staying minority shaped the political identity of newly formed local societies after ethnic cleansing by providing the ‘small seed’ of political development.
Keywords:
forced migration; displacement; ethnic cleansing
Fulltext is available at external website.
Forced migration, staying minorities, and new societies: evidence from post-war Czechoslovakia
Forced migration traumatizes millions displaced from their homes, but little is known about the few who manage to stay and become a minority in a new society. We study the case of German stayers in ...
The effects of minimum wage increases in the Czech Republic
Grossmann, Jakub
2021 - English
This paper analyzes employment effects of four minimum wage increases implemented in the Czech Republic during 2012-2017, which cumulatively increased the national minimum wage by 37 percent. We analyze outcomes at the level of firm-occupation-county-specific job cells and apply an intensity-treatment estimator similar to that of Machin et al. (2003). Our preferred specifications suggest that minimum wage increases led to higher wages for low-paid workers and did not have significant impacts on their employment.
Keywords:
minimum wage; intensity treatment; job cells
Fulltext is available at external website.
The effects of minimum wage increases in the Czech Republic
This paper analyzes employment effects of four minimum wage increases implemented in the Czech Republic during 2012-2017, which cumulatively increased the national minimum wage by 37 percent. We ...
Wages, minimum wages, and price pass-through: the case of McDonald's restaurants
Ashenfelter, O.; Jurajda, Štěpán
2021 - English
We use highly consistent national-coverage price and wage data to provide evidence on wage increases, labor-saving technology introduction, and price pass-through by a large low-wage employer facing minimum wage hikes. Based on 2016-2020 hourly wage rates of McDonald’s Basic Crew and prices of the Big Mac sandwich collected simultaneously from almost all US McDonald’s restaurants, we find that in about 25% of instances of minimum wage increases, restaurants display a tendency to keep constant their wage ‘premium’ above the increasing minimum wage. Higher minimum wages are not associated with faster adoption of touch-screen ordering, and there is near-full price pass-through of minimum wages, with little heterogeneity related to how binding minimum wage increases are for restaurants. Minimum wage hikes lead to increases in real wages (expressed in Big Macs an hour of Basic Crew work can buy) that are one fifth lower than the corresponding increases in nominal wages.
Keywords:
minimum wages; wage increases; McDonald’s
Fulltext is available at external website.
Wages, minimum wages, and price pass-through: the case of McDonald's restaurants
We use highly consistent national-coverage price and wage data to provide evidence on wage increases, labor-saving technology introduction, and price pass-through by a large low-wage employer facing ...
Revealing private information in a patent race
Kocourek, Pavel
2021 - English
In this paper I investigate the role of private information in a patent race. Since firms often do their research in secrecy, the common assumption in patent race literature that firms know each other’s position in the race is questionable. I analyze how the dynamics of the game changes when a firm’s progress is its private information, and I address the question whether revealing it might be to a firm’s advantage. I find that a firm has an incentive to reveal its breakthrough only if its rival has not done so, and only if the research is costly.
Keywords:
patent race; R&D investment; optimal effort
Fulltext is available at external website.
Revealing private information in a patent race
In this paper I investigate the role of private information in a patent race. Since firms often do their research in secrecy, the common assumption in patent race literature that firms know each ...
Forecasting realized volatility using machine learning and mixed-frequency data (the case of the Russian stock market)
Pyrlik, Vladimir; Elizarov, P.; Leonova, A.
2021 - English
We assess the performance of selected machine learning algorithms (lasso, random forest, gradient boosting, and long short-term memory) in forecasting the daily realized volatility of returns of selected top stocks in the Russian stock market in comparison with a heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility benchmark in 2018-2020. We seek to improve the predictive power of the models by including various economic indicators that carry information about future volatility. We find that lasso delivers a good combination of easy implementation and forecast precision. The other algorithms require fine-tuning and frequent re-training, otherwise they are likely to fail to outperform the benchmark often enough. Only the basic lagged log-RV values are significant explanatory variables in terms of the benchmark in-sample quality. Many economic indicators of mixed frequencies improve the predictive power of lasso though, including calendar and overnight effects, financial spillovers from local and global markets, and various macroeconomics indicators.
Keywords:
heterogeneous autoregressive model; machine learning; lasso
Fulltext is available at external website.
Forecasting realized volatility using machine learning and mixed-frequency data (the case of the Russian stock market)
We assess the performance of selected machine learning algorithms (lasso, random forest, gradient boosting, and long short-term memory) in forecasting the daily realized volatility of returns of ...
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