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Macroeconomic Responses of Emerging Market Economies to Oil Price Shocks: Analysis by Region and Resource Profile
Togonidze, S.; Kočenda, Evžen
2022 - English
This study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse how oil price shocks affect macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Findings from existing literature remain inconclusive how macroeconomic variables fare towards shocks, especially in emerging economies. The objective of our study is to uncover if analysis by region (Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and Central Asia) and resource intensity of economies (oil exporters, oil importers, minerals exporters, and less resource intensive). Our unique approach forms part of our contribution to the literature. We find that Latin America and the Caribbean are least affected by oil price shocks, while in East Asia and the Pacific the response of inflation and interest rate to oil price shocks is positive, and output growth is negative. Our analysis by resource endowment fails to show oil price shocks’ ability to explain huge variations in macroeconomic variables in oil importing economies. Further sensitivity analysis using US interest rates as an alternative source of external shocks to emerging economies establishes a significant response of interest rate responses to US interest rate in Europe and Central Asia, and in inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that regardless of resource endowment, the response of output growth and capital to a positive US interest rate shock is negative and significant in EMs. Our results are persuasive that resource intensity and regional factors impact the responsiveness of emerging economies to oil price shocks, thus laying a basis for policy debate.\n
Keywords:
Emerging market economies; Oil shocks; GDP; Markov-switching; Exchange rate; Oil exporters; Metal exporters
Fulltext is available at external website.
Macroeconomic Responses of Emerging Market Economies to Oil Price Shocks: Analysis by Region and Resource Profile
This study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse how oil price shocks affect macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Findings from existing literature remain inconclusive ...
Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks
Kučera, A.; Kočenda, Evžen; Maršál, Aleš
2022 - English
We show that government spending does play a role in shaping the yield curve which has important consequences for the cost of private and government financing. We combine government spending shock identification strategies from the fiscal macro literature with recent advancements in no-arbitrage affine term structure modeling, where we account for time-varying macroeconomic trends in inflation and the equilibrium real interest rate. We stress in our empirical macro-finance framework the importance of timing in the response of yields to government spending. We find that the yield curve responds positively but mildly to a surprise in government spending shocks where the rise in risk-neutral yields is compensated by a drop in nominal term premia. The news shock in expectations about future expenditures decreases yields across all maturities. Complementarily, we also analyze the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty where higher fiscal uncertainty lowers yields.
Keywords:
Government Expenditures; Fiscal policy; U.S. Treasury Yield Curve; Affine Term Structure Model
Fulltext is available at external website.
Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks
We show that government spending does play a role in shaping the yield curve which has important consequences for the cost of private and government financing. We combine government spending shock ...
ECB monetary policy and commodity prices
Aliyev, S.; Kočenda, Evžen
2022 - English
We assess the impact of ECB monetary policy on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices over 2001–2019. We employ a SVAR model and separately assess periods before and after the global financial crisis. Our key results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have positive effects on commodity prices during both conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods, indicating the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy tools. The largest impact is documented on fuel and food commodities. Our results also suggest that the effect of ECB monetary policy on commodity prices transmits through the exchange rate channel, which influences European market demand.
Keywords:
European Central Bank; commodity prices; short-term interest rates; M2 stock; monetary aggregate; unconventional monetary policy; Structural Vector Autoregressive model; exchange rates
Fulltext is available at external website.
ECB monetary policy and commodity prices
We assess the impact of ECB monetary policy on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices over 2001–2019. We employ a SVAR model and separately assess periods before and after the global financial ...
Financial Impact of Trust and Institutional Quality around the World
Kapounek, S.; Kočenda, Evžen; Kouba, L.
2022 - English
We investigate the financial impact of social trust, institutional quality, and regulations. As a testing ground we employ a unique, large, and hand-crafted dataset of more than 850 000 lending-based crowdfunding projects from 155 platforms across 55 countries during 2005–2018. We show that the impact of social trust is positive but economically less pronounced than that of institutional trust proxied by legal and property rights protection and regulation. Moreover, the financial impact of social trust is greater at the national level, while impact of institutional quality dominates at the international level. Nevertheless, the financial impact of trust and institutional quality around the world is positive, which is an encouraging implication under increasing anonymity and internationalization of financial environment.
Keywords:
social capital; social trust; institutional trust; uncertainty; crowdfunding; financial markets
Fulltext is available at external website.
Financial Impact of Trust and Institutional Quality around the World
We investigate the financial impact of social trust, institutional quality, and regulations. As a testing ground we employ a unique, large, and hand-crafted dataset of more than 850 000 lending-based ...
Large Perimeter Objects Surrounded by a 1.5D Terrain
Keikha, Vahideh
2022 - English
Given is a 1.5D terrain T , i.e., an x-monotone polygonal chain in R2. Our objective is to approximate the largest area or perimeter convex polygon with at most k vertices inside T . For a constant k > 0, we design an FPTAS that efficiently approximates such polygons within a factor (1 − ǫ). For the special case of the´largest-perimeter contained triangle in T , we design an O(n log n) time exact algorithm that matches the same result for the area measure.
Available in digital repository of the ASCR
Large Perimeter Objects Surrounded by a 1.5D Terrain
Given is a 1.5D terrain T , i.e., an x-monotone polygonal chain in R2. Our objective is to approximate the largest area or perimeter convex polygon with at most k vertices inside T . For a constant k ...
For God, Tsar and Fatherland? The political influence of Church
Travova, Ekaterina
2022 - English
This paper investigates the influence of the Orthodox Church network in Post-Soviet Russia on individual political preferences and election results. I use the numbers of monks and nuns from Orthodox monasteries operated in the Russian Empire before the Revolution as historical religious markers to construct a Bartik-style instrument (1991). I find that a denser Church network increases the average local approval rating for the current president and the share of votes cast for the government candidate in presidential elections. Further analysis of mechanisms shows that, today, the extending Church network is increasingly less able to attract people to attend church and to substantially increase the share of practicing believers. However, it does affect the political preferences of those who, regardless of their faith in God, self-identify as Orthodox. The potential channel for persuasion is media.
Keywords:
Orthodoxy; Church; approval
Fulltext is available at external website.
For God, Tsar and Fatherland? The political influence of Church
This paper investigates the influence of the Orthodox Church network in Post-Soviet Russia on individual political preferences and election results. I use the numbers of monks and nuns from Orthodox ...
Violent conflicts and child gender preferences of parents: evidence from Nigeria
Sargsyan, Ella
2022 - English
Identifying the impacts of conflicts and understanding the origins of gender gaps are both seemingly unrelated but crucial questions in the literature. Focusing on the gap at the intersection of these two branches of literature, this study explores whether and how longrun exposure to violent conflicts contributes to and shapes the child gender preferences of parents. I use temporal and spatial variations in conflicts in Nigeria and combine the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and the Demographic and Health Surveys Program to perform the analysis. The results show that the effect of long-run exposure to violent conflicts on stated preferences (attitudes) for boys is not homogeneous. While conflict events with low or no civilian death increase preferences for sons, violence targeted at civilians works in the opposite direction and decreases preferences for boys. I find no evidence of translating these preferences into behaviour via sex-selective abortions. Instead, evidence shows that parents use the stopping rule to achieve the desired gender composition of children. Further, analysis also indicates that, in the districts affected by conflict, parents have a positive bias towards boys in terms of their postnatal health investment.
Keywords:
gender preferences; son preference; violent conflicts
Fulltext is available at external website.
Violent conflicts and child gender preferences of parents: evidence from Nigeria
Identifying the impacts of conflicts and understanding the origins of gender gaps are both seemingly unrelated but crucial questions in the literature. Focusing on the gap at the intersection of these ...
Access to financial resources and environmental migration of the poor
Rakhmetova, Aizhamal; Hoffmann, R.; Pytliková, Mariola
2022 - English
Despite an increasing number of studies, there is no scientific consensus on the extent and conditions under which environmental factors influence migration. In particular, little is known about the role played by financial resources that may facilitate or hinder migration under environmental stress. Empirical evidence shows that some households migrate in response to environmental hazards while others remain in place, potentially being trapped due to lack of resources, i.e. poverty constraints. However, little is known about how access to financial resources influences the decision of a household to stay or migrate. On one hand, financial resources can help to alleviate poverty constraints and to cover migration costs, thereby increasing migration (climate-driver mechanism), on the other hand, financial resources can also improve the adaptation capacities of households at the place they reside, and thus reduce migration responses to environmental changes (climate-inhibitor mechanism). To shed light on households’ migration decisions in response to climate shocks depending on their access to financial resources, we utilize rich micro-data from Indonesia and exploit two sources of variation in climate and cash transfers. Our results suggest that better access to financial resources facilitates the climate-inhibitor mechanism for short-term rainfall shocks and natural disasters. At the same time, better accessibility to financial resources enhances the climate-driver mechanism for accumulated rainfall shocks and temperature anomalies.
Keywords:
climate change; migration; financial resources
Fulltext is available at external website.
Access to financial resources and environmental migration of the poor
Despite an increasing number of studies, there is no scientific consensus on the extent and conditions under which environmental factors influence migration. In particular, little is known about the ...
Location choice and dispersal policies: Ukrainian war immigrants in the Czech Republic
Adunts, Davit; Kurylo, Bohdana; Špeciánová, J.
2022 - English
The large influx of Ukrainian immigrant refugees to the Czech Republic fleeing from the war has attracted the attention of many policymakers due to their unequal geographical distribution. The high concentration of refugees in some districts has the potential to burden the school and healthcare systems, as well as the housing market. This project aims to provide an explanation for the unequal distribution of refugees by studying the determinants of refugee location choices in the Czech Republic, including ethnic networks and employment prospects. We provided evidence of a positive association between the number of Ukrainian refugees and (i) the stock of previous Ukrainian immigrants (our measure of ethnic networks) and (ii) the number of available job positions. In addition, we conducted a review of previous studies on the effectiveness of dispersal policies and determined that such policies exert ambiguous effects on refugee labor market integration. Hence, dispersal policies need to consider the integration of refugees and their intentions to remain in the country.
Keywords:
Ukrainian refugees; Czech Republic; geographical distribution
Fulltext is available at external website.
Location choice and dispersal policies: Ukrainian war immigrants in the Czech Republic
The large influx of Ukrainian immigrant refugees to the Czech Republic fleeing from the war has attracted the attention of many policymakers due to their unequal geographical distribution. The high ...
Bank Survival Around the World: A Meta-Analytic Review
Kočenda, Evžen; Iwasaki, I.
2021 - English
Bank survival is essential to economic growth and development because banks mediate the financing of the economy. A bank’s overall condition is often assessed by a supervisory rating system called CAMELS, an acronym for the components Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management quality, Earnings, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to market risk. Estimates of the impact of CAMELS components on bank survival vary widely. We perform a meta-synthesis and meta-regression analysis (MRA) using 2120 estimates collected from 50 studies. In the MRA, we account for uncertainty in moderator selection by employing Bayesian model averaging. The results of the synthesis indicate an economically negligible impact of CAMELS variables on bank survival; in addition, the effect of bank-specific, (macro)economic, and market factors is virtually absent. The results of the heterogeneity analysis and publication bias analysis are consistent in terms that they do not find an economically significant impact of the CAMELS variables. Moreover, best practice estimates show a small economic impact of CAMELS components and no impact of other factors. The study concludes that caution should be exercised when using CAMELS rating to predict bank survival or failure.
Keywords:
bank survival; bank failure; CAMELS; meta-analysis; publication selection bias
Fulltext is available at external website.
Bank Survival Around the World: A Meta-Analytic Review
Bank survival is essential to economic growth and development because banks mediate the financing of the economy. A bank’s overall condition is often assessed by a supervisory rating system called ...
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